February 22, 2021
By Brian Horrigan
Congressional leaders are aiming to pass a $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package by mid-March. This approach is not without risks.
December 18, 2020
By Jennifer Thomas
A K-shaped recovery is an uneven one in which some industries and some groups get left behind. That is what we will be watching for in the months ahead.
November 23, 2020
By Craig Burelle
While we expect global growth to slow in the fourth quarter as many countries try to contain another wave of COVID-19, we have upgraded our 2020 GDP growth forecasts for the US and China.
November 9, 2020
By Jim Grabovac, CFA
Municipal bond defaults have been rising, but investor demand remains robust. This incongruence may suggest the municipal market is behaving irrationally, but we don't think that's the case.
October 21, 2020
By Peter Palfrey, CFA, and Michael Gladchun
Peter Palfrey and Michael Gladchun explain why they believe TIPS could benefit from a repricing of inflation expectations and inflation risk premium.
October 19, 2020
By the Loomis Sayles Credit Research Team
Loomis Sayles has a deep roster of experienced credit analysts. Here's a glimpse into our team's analysis of key sectors impacted by the COVID-19 crisis.
October 2, 2020
By Craig Burelle
Key events related to fiscal policy, social distancing and COVID-19 could dictate US economic performance. Our outlook is broadly constructive.
September 16, 2020
By Jim Grabovac, CFA
Significant infrastructure financing is coming in the municipal bond market—it is not a question of if, but of when and what magnitude.
September 16, 2020
By Jon Levy and Jingzhou Meng
The UK faces a protracted mix of problems that could weigh on the economy beyond the end of Brexit.
September 2, 2020
By Brian Horrigan
Consumers are traditionally the engine of the US economy, and I believe consumer confidence is an important indicator of consumer intentions. The August reading of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index suggests that consumers are not feeling optimistic.
August 21, 2020
By Craig Burelle
We believe the global economy appears to be working its way out of a deep recession. Read on for a visual snapshot of GDP growth around the globe.
August 12, 2020
By The Loomis Sayles Core Plus Fixed Income Team
The Loomis Sayles Core Plus Fixed Income Team shares their thoughts on the potential for downgrades in the BBB debt market and dialing up portfolio risk.
August 10, 2020
By Brian Horrigan
The global volume of exports has dropped 23% (not annualized) in just five months. There really is no precedent for such a shock since data collection began.
August 6, 2020
By The Loomis Sayles Full Discretion Team
The Loomis Sayles Full Discretion team answers questions on the recovery, government stimulus and how they're investing in this uncertain environment.
August 3, 2020
By the Loomis Sayles Alpha Strategies Team
The Loomis Sayles Alpha Strategies Team answers three questions on corporate health, regime models and opportunities in emerging markets.
July 29, 2020
By Ashish Chugh
In May, you noted that emerging markets (EM) were facing a mix of bright spots and risks. How has that mix played out?
July 21, 2020
By Scott Hofer, CFA
Spreads on commercial asset-backed securities widened considerably as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, with transportation-related sectors leading the trade down.
July 21, 2020
By John Bell
In March, we saw three different roads back to par, with market recovery in 6-12 months the most likely. How has the recent market activity changed this view?
July 20, 2020
By the Loomis Sayles Global Fixed Income Team
In March, the Team anticipated the economy could experience sluggish growth in the third quarter after a downturn in the second. Given the ongoing vagaries of quarantines and shutdowns, how has their growth outlook changed?
July 16, 2020
By Shannon O'Mara, CFA
The homebuilding and building products industries have held up quite well during this economic downturn compared to the material negative impact they experienced during the global financial crisis.
July 7, 2020
By Tom Fahey
As we enter credit repair, we are wary of using the global financial crisis as a benchmark for the path to recovery. We see several key reasons that suggest this time will be different.
July 6, 2020
By Craig Burelle
As the economy moves into a credit repair phase, uncertainty related to the future implications of COVID-19 persists.
June 10, 2020
By Matt Eagan, CFA, and Elaine Stokes
An update on what the Loomis Sayles Full Discretion Team is watching as we continue to move through the COVID-19 crisis.
June 10, 2020
By Kathleen Bochman, CFA, Steven Bocamazo and Darcie Sunnerberg
Insights on COVID-19's impact on ESG factors.
June 1, 2020
By Craig Burelle
The COVID-19 pandemic has tipped the global economy into what appears to be the deepest recession in decades. No region has escaped the impact, but some have fared better than others. Read on for a visual snapshot of what 2020 growth may look like across the globe.
May 29, 2020
By Michael Herald
Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) performed well through the global financial crisis but this time may be different. Given these challenges, investors must pay careful attention to factors including CLOs’ structural leverage, collateral quality and managers’ behaviors.
May 29, 2020
By Elisabeth Colleran
It may surprise some investors to learn that the leverage profile of emerging market (EM) corporations appears to be in better shape than that of their US counterparts. Maybe it’s a matter of “been there, done that.”
May 14, 2020
By Jennifer Thomas
Employment is a key driver of performance for consumer asset-backed securities (ABS), and with unemployment at historic highs, the short-term outlook for many parts of the sector is bleak. While remittance data lags, early indications already show declines in prepayments and increases in payment extensions, as we expected. However, we believe payment modifications and government stimulus payments to consumers will limit actual loan losses.
May 12, 2020
By The Loomis Sayles Emerging Market Debt Team
Investors of many types were blindsided by the COVID-19 crisis. Emerging market (EM) debt investors, familiar with volatility and the opportunities market dislocations can provide, have been assessing portfolio allocations in light of shifting valuations.
May 12, 2020
By Harish Sundaresh, Michael Frederikse and Thomas Dunlap, CFA
It can be difficult to give a fair representation of each country’s market response to the COVID-19 outbreak. Each nation has varying initial conditions, population responses, and approaches to quarantines. Some countries have not issued a formal quarantine order, yet many people may have chosen to quarantine anyway. How can one measure a country’s response under these circumstances? We believe high-frequency data can offer some answers.
May 7, 2020
By Jim Grabovac, CFA
Insights on COVID-19's impact on the municipal market.
May 7, 2020
By Ashish Chugh
COVID-19 and turbulence in the oil market have been reshaping daily life, economic fundamentals and market activity for weeks. Emerging markets, like the rest of the world, have been along for the ride.
May 5, 2020
By Todd Vandam, CFA
Credit markets are bifurcated, and there’s a major yield difference between the perceived winners and losers. This trend is creating a lot of questions—and potential value—for credit investors.
May 1, 2020
By Harish Sundaresh and Diqing Wu
When storage capacity is near its limits, how do oil producers offload their inventory? One way is to incentivize buyers with negative prices. This is precisely what happened on April 20, the day before the May WTI futures contract expired.
April 30, 2020
By Stephen LaPlante, CFA
The US housing and mortgage markets—the primary culprits blamed for the last global downturn—do not have that dubious distinction this time. But with COVID-19 forcing near total economic shutdown, the crisis has implications for US housing and mortgage-backed securities.
April 30, 2020
By David Rolley, CFA, Lynda Schweitzer, CFA, and Scott Service, CFA
In the following Q&A, the Loomis Sayles Global Fixed Income portfolio management team shares its views on the global credit markets, opportunities and risks.
April 22, 2020
By Harish Sundaresh
Investors and financial markets are forward-looking. They are constantly trying to anticipate the future and how to position for it. In a COVID-19 world, where economic uncertainty and financial market conditions are at extremes, that’s no easy task. A key question at times like this is: which models and data sets may be best equipped to inform our decision making?
April 21, 2020
By Brian Horrigan, PhD, CFA, and Jim Grabovac, CFA
On April 9, the Federal Reserve announced the creation of the Municipal Lending Facility (MLF), aimed at allowing state and local (S&L) governments access to credit so that they may continue to function in these hard times.
April 15, 2020
By Chris Gootkind, CFA
Insight on COVID-19's impact on corporate debt and downgrades.
April 14, 2020
By Greg Ward and Jennifer Thomas
Insights on COVID-19's impact on consumer ABS sectors.
April 13, 2020
By Brian Kennedy
Insights on COVID-19's impact on high yield sectors.
April 9, 2020
By Justin Teman, CFA, ASA
Insights on COVID-19's impact on corporate pension plans.
April 8, 2020
By Pramila Agrawal, PhD, CFA
Insight on COVID-19's impact on the insurance sector.
April 8, 2020
By Michael Crowell and Tom Fahey
Credit markets are moving fast. But periods of maximum uncertainty often make the most attractive entry points.
April 8, 2020
By Joanne McIntosh
Insight on COVID-19's impact on the lodging and leisure sector.
April 7, 2020
By Brian Horrigan, PhD, CFA
On March 31, the Federal Reserve announced the creation of another new liquidity facility; this one is aimed at central banks and international institutions. This new facility is a temporary repurchase agreement facility for Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA), and is called the FIMA Repo Facility. It is intended to help support the smooth functioning of financial markets, including the US Treasury market, and thus help maintain the supply of credit to US households and businesses.
April 3, 2020
By Brian Horrigan, PhD, CFA
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has taken another step in its attempt to avert a financial crisis. It revived its Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), a measure last used in the Great Recession. The TALF will enable the issuance of asset-backed securities (ABS) backed by student loans, auto loans, credit card loans, loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration (SBA), and certain other assets. It will do so by lending to those holding AAA-rated ABS.
April 2, 2020
By John Bell
Loans are senior and secured, so they are generally at the head of the queue if there is a default. That gives loans an advantage over high yield bonds and equities in the companies we loan money to when defaults are a concern. As I’ve said before, this advantage is why I think loans have more than one road back to par even as the global economy feels the pain inflicted by COVID-19.
April 1, 2020
By Craig Burelle
We believe global stimulus measures could encourage a broad rebound from the current downturn.
March 31, 2020
By Michael Gladchun
It’s amazing what you can achieve with a budget of $75 billion per day. Since mid-March, the Federal Reserve has worked relentlessly to unfreeze Treasury markets. The results of its asset purchases are starting to show. Treasury liquidity—one of the most unusual and troubling pain points of this liquidity crisis—has vastly improved since quantitative easing (QE) started.
March 30, 2020
By Tom Fahey, Marianne Winkelman, Robyn Wilkin and Valerie Miles
Like everywhere else, Europe needs liquidity. And the European Central Bank is delivering that in abundance. It appears to stand ready to do more without delay when markets become dysfunctional.
March 30, 2020
By Jae Park and Michael Giles, CFA
Last week, we held a call with our Chief Investment Officer and Chief Investment Risk Officer to discuss how Loomis Sayles is responding to COVID-19. Read a summary of the call here.
March 30, 2020
By The Loomis Sayles Municipal Credit Research Team
Our municipal credit research team offers their current outlooks on the impact of COVID-19 on key sectors.
March 30, 2020
By Brian Horrigan, PhD, CFA and Brian Kennedy
To help support investment-grade corporate bond market liquidity, the Federal Reserve introduced two facilities March 23: the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility and the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility
March 27, 2020
By Brian Horrigan, PhD, CFA and Brian Kennedy
On March 23, the Federal Reserve announced measures to support the corporate bond market beyond the more traditional support for only financial institutions.
March 23, 2020
By Ryan McGrail
Oil’s back below $30 and suddenly it feels like 2016 all over again. Only it’s not. Saudi Arabia’s 2015-2016 production boom was a war on US shale. This time, Saudi Arabia is waging a war for market share against Russia and the US. It’s a war with no winners, least of all US fracking.
March 20, 2020
By Justin Teman, CFA, ASA
While the human element is certainly the primary concern in relation to the coronavirus impact, we turn our attention here to the impact on pension plans and review key considerations for plan sponsors in this evolving crisis.
March 19, 2020
By the Loomis Sayles Municipal Fixed Income Team
The municipal fixed income market, like most other asset classes, is experiencing unprecedented volatility. Large mutual fund outflows are adding to the volatility as investors seek to add to cash reserves by selling what may be deemed easiest to sell. There’s been significant widening in bid/ask spreads as a result of the market sell imbalance and a corresponding significant decline in liquidity.
March 19, 2020
By John Bell
We expect to see a combination of anti-viral medications and vaccines develop over 6 to 12 months globally. We are seeing daily positive articles on the effectiveness of anti-virals from other countries. Vaccine development appears to be moving very quickly, and there is potential for a vaccine to get to people as soon as the end of 2020. If people think effective treatments and vaccines are imminent, life could go back to normal, and in this case, that could mean coming out of our protective shells into a world powered by loose monetary and fiscal policy.
March 18, 2020
By the Loomis Sayles Credit Research Group
In the evolving pandemic environment, Loomis Sayles credit analysts are reassessing, recalibrating and reconsidering the factors influencing the businesses they follow. As one might expect, companies are feeling the impact of the new economic landscape in a variety of ways. Here, our analysts offer their early takes on how key sectors and industries might fare.
March 15, 2020
By Rick Raczkowski and Peter Palfrey, CFA
On Thursday, March 12, Rick Raczkowski, co-lead portfolio manager of Core Plus Fixed Income participated in a conference call with clients to discuss recent events and market activity. He discussed that while there is a lot of fear and uncertainty in the market right now, he and co-lead portfolio manager Peter Palfrey are maintaining their discipline of managing through the cycle as they have for the past 20 years.
March 15, 2020
By Lynda Schweitzer, CFA and Scott Service, CFA
On Friday, March 13, Loomis Sayles’ Global Fixed Income team held a conference call to discuss the current market environment, policy responses and potential opportunities. Here, portfolio managers Lynda Schweitzer and Scott Service summarized a few key points.
March 15, 2020
By Maura T. Murphy, CFA and Michael Gladchun
When the world’s biggest debt market starts having major liquidity issues, investor panic rises to a whole new level. On March 12 and 13, after about a week of extraordinary dysfunction in the US Treasury market, the Federal Reserve issued a major crisis response, expanding Treasury purchases and repurchase operations to boost liquidity and shore up so-called risk-free assets. Will it be enough to fix the Treasury market? Here’s our take.
March 15, 2020
By Matt Eagan and Elaine Stokes
On Thursday, March 12, Loomis Sayles’ Full Discretion team held a conference call to discuss current conditions, upcoming challenges and potential portfolio positioning and solutions. Here, portfolio managers Matt Eagan and Elaine Stokes summarized a few key points.
March 13, 2020
By Kevin Kearns, Harish Sundaresh, Andrea DiCenso and Maura T. Murphy, CFA
On Thursday, March 12, Loomis Sayles’ Alpha Strategies team held a conference call to discuss current conditions, upcoming challenges and potential portfolio positioning and solutions. Here, each speaker summarized a few key points.
March 6, 2020
By Saurabh Lele, CFA, Tom Fahey, Michael Crowell and Michael Gladchun
We held a conference call on March 5 to discuss the market and economic impact of COVID-19. In case you missed it, each of our speakers shared their key takeaways.
February 28, 2020
By Michael Crowell, Tom Fahey, Craig Burelle and Saurabh Lele, CFA
Markets have sent a clear message in recent days: investors are afraid of the coronavirus. The disease’s global progression and containment measures are seen as impediments to global economic recovery. The toll on human lives has indeed been unnerving and regrettable. However, fear can lead investors to make irrational choices. We acknowledge that the virus is a global growth risk, and the situation will probably get worse before it gets better. Read on for our assessment of developments, likely implications and what we are analyzing to test our outlook.
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